Free xG Calculator — Football Expected Goals & Shot Map

xG (expected goals) is a football statistic that measures the quality of a scoring chance. It assigns a probability between 0 and 1 to each shot based on factors like distance from goal, shooting angle, body part, and type of play. An xG of 0.3 means the shot would be scored 30% of the time based on historical data. xG helps analysts, coaches, and fans evaluate whether a team is creating and converting chances effectively.

xG is calculated using a logistic regression model. This calculator uses weighted factors: distance to goal (further = lower xG), shooting angle subtended by the goal posts (wider = higher xG), body part (headers receive a penalty), and play type (crosses and free kicks reduce xG). The model outputs a probability between 0.01 and 0.99. Penalties are assigned a fixed xG of 0.78 based on historical conversion rates.

Click anywhere on the football pitch to select a shot position. The calculator automatically computes distance and angle. Then choose the body part (foot/header), play type (open play, cross, free kick, penalty), and result (goal/miss). Click "Calculate & Plot Shot" to add it to your xG shot map. Repeat for every shot to build a complete match analysis.

The average xG per shot in top European leagues is around 0.10 to 0.12. Shots with xG above 0.30 are considered high-quality chances — typically close-range efforts or penalties. A penalty has an xG of 0.78. Headers from crosses typically have lower xG (0.03-0.08) due to difficulty. Teams that consistently create shots with high xG per shot are generating quality chances.

Green dots represent goals and red dots represent misses. The size of each dot is proportional to the xG value — larger dots indicate higher-quality chances. This makes it easy to visually identify where the best scoring opportunities came from and whether they were converted.

Shots from further away are statistically less likely to result in goals. The shooting angle narrows, the goalkeeper has more time to react, and there is more chance of deflection. The logistic regression model applies a negative weight to distance, reflecting this real-world pattern from thousands of historical shots across professional football leagues.

Yes, this xG calculator is completely free with no signup required. Your shot data is automatically saved in your browser's local storage so it persists between visits. You can record, analyse, and export xG shot maps at no cost.

Yes, click the Export PNG button to download your complete xG shot map as a high-quality image. The export includes the football pitch, all plotted shots with xG values, and summary statistics. It's ideal for match analysis reports, coaching presentations, social media, and football blogs.